The cost support is strong, how will the market of compound fertilizer go after the Spring Festival?

Recently, the overall price of raw materials has been relatively strong, the price of urea has fluctuated at a high level, and the price of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer has remained high, which has provided strong support for the price of compound fertilizer, and the price of compound fertilizer has also risen slightly. Compound fertilizer companies mostly execute pre-orders, and some manufacturers still have the idea of ​​continuing to raise the price of compound fertilizers, and the downstream is cautiously watching. 
In terms of price, the wholesale price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer in Shandong refers to 3100-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer refers to 2850-3050 yuan/ton; the wholesale price of 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer in Hubei is 2850 yuan/ton Around; the price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer in Yunnan and Guizhou is 3050-3150 yuan/ton, the price of 45% chlorine-based compound fertilizer is 2850-3050 yuan/ton; the reference price of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer in Henan is 3050-3150 yuan/ton . 
Stronger cost side
The urea market continued to be firm and stable last week. The person in charge of a urea enterprise in Henan said that at present, the demand for urea still exists. After a long period of downturn, compound fertilizer manufacturers have maintained a high operating rate recently, and the demand for urea has increased. At present, the daily production of urea in China has risen to 152,100 tons, and the operating rate is about 67.17%. The operating rate of coal head enterprises has dropped slightly, and the operating rate of gas head enterprises has increased. The urea market basically maintains a balance between supply and demand. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a narrow range consolidation trend a few years ago. 
The price of potassium chloride has been consolidated, the price is still rising, and the supply of goods is still tight, especially in the northeast region. It is understood that with the advancement of winter storage, the demand in Northeast China has picked up. Compound fertilizer companies mainly purchase potash fertilizers on demand, but the local supply is insufficient, resulting in a rapid rise in the price of large-grained red potassium. In terms of domestic potassium, the operating rate of manufacturers' installations is still at a low level. After the recent price increase of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake, no new price policy has been issued yet, and the plant is operating normally, mainly executing pre-orders. According to the data, the arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 3900~3950 yuan/ton. 
In 2021, due to the flood of global liquidity, the sharp rise in international fertilizer prices, as well as the tight domestic energy supply, rising raw material prices and other factors, fertilizer prices will rise sharply. Jin Xiandong, director of the Policy Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the peak period for planting and fertilizer use in autumn and winter has passed, and the price of urea has dropped slightly, but it is still at a high level in the same period in the past 10 years. significantly increased. Considering the difficulty of further sharp drop in production costs, it is expected that the price of fertilizers for spring ploughing may remain at a high level. 
Sufficient supply of goods
Zhang Chuanbin, general manager of Rizhao Gengyun Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. told reporters: "Recently, the price of compound fertilizer has risen slightly, and the market transaction is relatively cold. The enthusiasm for winter storage is not high. Compared with the same period in previous years, the winter storage has declined seriously. Even so, some manufacturers still We are planning to increase prices. The main reason is that the raw material market has been on an upward trend, and it is difficult for the market price of chemical fertilizers to fall sharply in the short term, and even individual raw materials may still rise. Therefore, some manufacturers have no choice but to increase their prices.” However, there are also some manufacturers due to high prices. The poor supply of fertilizers began to use crooked brains. According to Zhang Chuanbin, due to the relatively low prices of crops and the continued high price of fertilizers, farmers are not very motivated to purchase fertilizers. Even if they are rigidly needed, they will choose cheap fertilizers. Some compound fertilizer manufacturers have seized the farmers' psychology, produced low-content formulas, reduced production costs, seized the market with low-priced products, and won the favor of farmers. However, in this way, the application of low-content chemical fertilizers will cause problems such as crop yield reduction, which will bring greater losses to farmers. Therefore, I still call on the relevant departments to pay attention to the healthy and orderly development of the fertilizer market, and investigate the fake fertilizers to the end, so as to prevent farmers from being deceived and causing irreparable losses. To ensure that farmers increase production and income, and return a pure land to the agricultural materials market. 
Regarding the market outlook, industry insiders analyzed that with the gradual advancement of the winter storage market, the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises continued to rebound slightly. In terms of raw materials, the support is strong, and the cost of compound fertilizer is strong. At this stage, the willingness of distributors to pick up the goods in some regions has been strengthened, and the enterprises mainly focus on the delivery of winter wheat top dressing. Since most dealers have relatively small inventory in the early stage and there is still a lot of space for replenishment, it is expected that the demand for replenishment after the holiday may be relatively concentrated, which will play a certain supporting role in the compound fertilizer market. 
At the same time, Zhang Chuanbin also said that at this stage, the supply of high-priced brands is sufficient, and the supply of low-priced products is relatively tight. Large-scale compound fertilizer manufacturers are actively producing and maintaining a high operating rate. During the Spring Festival, a few companies plan to stop for a few days, and will resume production soon after the festival to fully ensure the supply of goods in the spring market. In general, the current supply of agricultural materials can meet the demand for fertilizer for spring ploughing.